It happens every year. Immediately after the NFL regular season ends, and just before the start of the playoffs, there is an onrush of head coaches who get the boot. The bloodletting usually takes place on that Monday, hence why it's called "Black Monday," though some firings will trickle out a few days or weeks after.
Identifying which head coaches are on the hot seat is an important part of fandom and even betting. It speaks to the direction of different teams and what to expect from them, both now and later. It also might be a way to make some money, because yes, you can wager on who receives the ax. Currently, BetOnline is offering odds on the following names:
| Head Coach | Team |  |
|---|---|---|
| Adam Gase | New York Jets | -175 |
| Matt Patricia | Detroit Lions | +275 |
| Doug Marrone | Jacksonville Jaguars | +325 |
| Matt Nagy | Chicago Bears | +700 |
| Anthony Lynn | Los Angeles Chargers | +900 |
Other coaches may enter the fold as the 2020 NFL season continues to unfold. There may even be some surprise names in charge of playoff teams who get walking papers right before or after the Super Bowl. Be on the lookout for these additions, as well as changes to the above list, before committing to any decisions.
For now, though, we've got the lowdown on what to expect. Below you'll find a ranking of which coaches are most liable to get fired, in reverse order of likelihood.
NFL Head Coaches Most Likely to Get Fired
5. Anthony Lynn, Los Angeles Chargers (+900)
"Anthony Lynn" Public Domain
This is Anthony Lynn's fourth season at the helm of the Chargers. And it's not going well.
Los Angeles is on pace to win only between four or five games and owns a bottom-seven defense when looking at points allowed. The record alone could be a death knell for Lynn's job, since he's working off another 5-11 campaign from last season.
Still, there's also a strong chance he gets some leeway from the front office. The Chargers have moved on from Philip Rivers, who signed with the Indianapolis Colts in free agency, and are fully married to rookie quarterback Justin Herbert. Growing pains were inevitable, and Los Angeles has actually outperformed expectations on the offensive side of the ball, placing 15th in points scored per game on the back of a roughly league-average passing attack.
OSB Prediction: Anthony Lynn doesn't get fired
4. Doug Marrone, Jacksonville Jaguars (+325)
Doug Marrone's seat is scorching hot. The Jaguars have rattled off just one win to date and don't seem to have a concrete direction on either side of the ball. They rank in the bottom five of both points scored and allowed. Yikes.
How much of that falls on Marrone remains unclear. The Jags haven't exactly given him a lot to work with, particularly at quarterback. You can't expect a team that has relied on some combination of Gardner Minshew, Jake Luton, and James Robinson to actually be good.
Then again, Marrone in his fourth season as head coach in Jacksonville. He's been at the wheel for five partial seasons when you factor in his two-game stint during the 2016 season. During this time, he's compiled a winning percentage south of 39. That's glaring. It feels like only a matter of time before the franchise blows everything up.
Will that be this offseason? We're not quite sure. We could see him getting another year after they make an upgrade over the center. We could also see Jacksonville taking a stick of dynamite to everyone connected to this forsaken season.
OSB Prediction: Doug Marrone's future is a coin toss. We lean toward him being fired.
3. Matt Nagy, Chicago Bears (+700)
With the Bears hovering around .500, others might be more inclined to view Matt Nagy as mostly safe. We're not quite there.
This is just his third season in his current position, and he has an above-.500 record overall. But he turned in just eight wins last year and could feasibly finish with fewer victories this time around. More to the point, he was brought on to help reinvent the offense. The Bears are currently second to last in points scored per game, with a passing game that ranks 30th in yards per attempt and 26th in turnovers.
Does this all fall on Nagy? Of course not. Chicago has given him an overpaid Nick Foles and underwhelming Mitchell Trubisky under center. He is in essence set up to fail. That doesn't mean he'll be safe. The Bears are impatient after making just one playoff appearance over the past decade.
OSB Prediction: Matt Nagy gets the ax when the 2020 season ends.
2. Matt Patricia, Detroit Lions (+275)
Lions fans will appreciate this ranking. They've collectively been calling for Matt Patricia's job basically since he finished his first season in Detroit.
This year isn't doing anything to help his case. The Lions are on course to win fewer than seven games for the third consecutive season under his eye, and the defense he was brought in to fix ranks 28th in points scored per game.
Not even the offense is a bright spot. Quarterback Matthew Stafford continues to be underrated, but the Lions don't have a viable rushing game around him, which inherently limits their threats. Personnel moves don't necessarily fall on Patricia, but he hasn't run an inventive enough offense to have an effective cover.
OSB Prediction: Matt Patricia may not even finish the season in Detroit.
1. Adam Gase, New York Jets (-175)
The question is no longer if Adam Gase will be fired. It's when.
Sure, this is just his second season in New York, but the Jets have been caps-lock bag. They are dead last in points scored per game, second to last in points allowed per game, and winless through Week 11.
It'd be one thing if sophomore quarterback Sam Darnold were making strides. He's not. The Jets seem like locks to finish with the first overall pick and draft Trevor Lawrence out of Clemson. That doesn't bode well for Gase's job security. No way this organization lets him oversee the implementation of another QB.
Really, the one thing keeping Gase from receiving his pink slip before the season ends is the Jets' consistent losing. There's no point making a change now. They're too far gone. His seat only gets hotter if they start winning and damaging their odds at landing that No. 1 pick.
OSB Prediction: Adam Gase finishes the season, unless he resigns, but gets fired immediately after.
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